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April 06, 2005
Scotsman on tactical voting
According to Fraser Nelson in the Scotsman, about 10 per cent of the British electorate voted tactically in the past two general elections. Given all the interest now being generated in the subject, I can only assume that even more people are likely to do so this time. Maybe 15 per cent, or 20 per cent?
However, as Nelson points out, many people in Scotland will be unfamiliar with their new constituencies and won’t necessarily know if they are in safe or a marginal seats, so voting behaviour could be erratic.
news.scotsman.com/opinion.cfm?id=361692005
Posted by Simon Holledge at April 6, 2005 11:08 AM
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Comments
I think that the new boundaries will make a big difference. People will either have to be political junkies to understand enough about the new constituencies to vote tactically, or else the SNP and LibDems are going to have to be extremely effective in explaining the situation to voters on the ground via leafletting and local press.
It is one of the few advantages to Labour of the new boundaries.
Posted by: Stuart Dickson at April 9, 2005 10:23 AM
Yes, some people may think they are in a safe (Labour) seat when they are not. This could work both (or several) ways of course.
The established political parties will be loath to promote tactical voting, rather than trying to shore up a core vote. Identifying with a specific campaign (e.g. Scottish regiments) that uses tactical voting may be OK when there are overwhelming advantages.
Tactical voting is really for pressure groups that can identify issues and objectives. For 'Backing Blair' for example the listed issues are the Iraq War, the anti-terrorism legislation, trial without jury, non-reform of the House of Lords, foundation Hospitals, ID Cards and student top-up fees. The objective is to get rid of Blair.
Real tactical voting by political parties implies some kind of electoral pact. As I have noted before, there would be advantages for the SNP and the Liberal Democrats to have this kind of arrangement if political circumstances were favourable.
Posted by: Simon Holledge at April 9, 2005 01:53 PM