« The impossible swing? | Main | Blogging the dawn »
May 05, 2005
Election night timetable
Here are approximate times for all the Scottish constituency declarations, and the top 40 Labour marginals (plus a few others), based on information from SNP HQ, the Press Association and the BBC and qwghim blog:
May 5, 22.08 pm
BBC exit polls based on 19,800 voters at 120 polling stations are indicating a Labour majority of 66 (down from 160). The Conservatives are thought to be up, but the Liberal Democrats are projected to lose 2 seats in total, winning against Labour but losing against the Tories. The share of the vote is anticipated to be Labour 37%, Conservatives 33% and Liberal Democrats 22%.
Boris Johnson writes on his blog: “I am … full of confidence that whatever happens we are now seeing the end of the Blair premiership. Even if - which I do not for a moment concede - Tony Blair hangs on to his job tonight, he will find it increasingly unbearable. Not only will he face a revived and invigorated Tory party, but also ranged behind him will be the vengeful spirits of his backbenchers …”
www.boris-johnson.com/archives/2005/05/election_2005.html
22.45
Sunderland South declares first: Labour hold, turnout 49%.
Other declarations: Sutherland North. Labour hold, turnout 50%. Houghton & Washington East. Labour hold. Rutherglen & Hamilton West. Labour Hold. 7% swing to Lib Dems.
May 6, 00.15 am
Barnsley Central. Labour hold. More Labour seats held: Rotherham, Vauxhall, Hull West and Hessle, Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend, Newcastle upon Tyne Central, Tyne Bridge
PUTNEY Con. win
More Labour seats held: Eccles, Newcastle upon Tyne North and more than I can note here …
00.45
Thanet South (Labour marginal number 21, majority 1792)
01.00
Score: Labour 40 seats, Liberal Democrat 2, Conservative 1, SNP 1
Angus (Mike Weir) SNP HOLD ; Dunbartonshire West LAB; Dunfermline & Fife West LAB; Falkirk LAB; Fife North East (Menzies Campbell) LIB DEM HOLD; Glenrothes LAB HOLD; Kilmarnock & Loudoun LAB HOLD; Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (Gordon Brown) LAB HOLD majority up; Lanark & Hamilton East LAB HOLD; Linlithgow & Falkirk East LAB HOLD; Livingston (Robin Cook) LAB HOLD; Paisley & Renfrewshire North LAB; Paisley & Renfrewshire South LAB; Blackburn (Jack Straw) LAB Hold; Ynys Mon (Labour marginal number 11, majority 800) LAB HOLD; Oldham East & Saddleworth (Labour marginal number 29, majority 2796) LAB HOLD; Calder Valley (Labour marginal number 31) LAB HOLD; Peterborough (Labour marginal number 33) CON GAIN
01:15
Score: Labour 67 seats, Liberal Democrat 3, Conservative 4, SNP 1
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Labour marginal number 43, Angus McNeil SNP) SNP GAIN
East Lothian LAB HOLD; Sedgefield (Tony Blair) Lab Hold
PETERBOROUGH Con Gain NEWBURY Con Gain
Score: Labour 70 seats, Liberal Democrat 3, Conservative 4, SNP 2
01:30
Dundee East (Labour marginal number 7, majority 496, Stewart Hosie SNP) SNP GAIN ; Dundee West (Joe FitzPatrick SNP) LAB HOLD; East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow LAB Hold; Glasgow Central LAB HOLD; Glasgow East LAB HOLD; Glasgow North LAB HOLD; Glasgow North East LAB HOLD; Glasgow North West LAB; Glasgow South LAB; Glasgow South West LAB HOLD; Perth & Perthshire North (Pete Wishart) SNP HOLD; Renfrewshire East; Welwyn Hatfield (Labour marginal number 13, majority 1196) CON GAIN; Shipley (Labour marginal number 14, majority 1428) CON GAIN; Ilford North (Labour marginal number 24, majority 2115) CON GAIN
01:45
Score: Labour 107 seats, Liberal Democrat 8, Conservative 12, SNP 2, PC 1
BBC are saying that it is still impossible to make any forcast because of the variety and complexity of the results.
01:52
So the BBC are making their first prediction: Labour 357 majority 68 Conservative 201 Liberal Democrat 59
Airdrie & Shotts (John Reid) LAB HOLD; Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill LAB; Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East LAB; Motherwell & Wishaw LAB
02:00
Score: Labour 137, Liberal Democrat 12, Conservative 16, SNP 2, PC 1
Aberdeen North (Kevin Stewart SNP) LAB HOLD; Aberdeen South (Labour marginal number 56) LAB HOLD; Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock LAB; Ayrshire Central LAB HOLD; Ayrshire North & Arran LAB HOLD ; Dunbartonshire East (Labour marginal number 30) LIB DEM GAIN; Inverclyde LAB; Moray (Angus Robertson) SNP HOLD; Stirling LAB HOLD; Monmouth (Labour marginal number 4, majority 384) CON GAIN; Northampton South (Labour marginal number 8, majority 885) CON GAIN; Cardiff Central (Labour marginal number 10, majority 659) LIB DEM GAIN; Hornchurch (Labour marginal number 18, majority 1482) CON GAIN; Harwich (Labour marginal number 27, majority 2596) CON GAIN; Hove (Labour marginal number 37) LAB HOLD
02:15
Score: Labour 186, Liberal Democrat 19, Conservative 29, SNP 2, PC 1
Midlothian
02:30
Score: Labour 207, Liberal Democrat 22, Conservative 34, SNP 2, PC 1
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk LIB DEM HOLD; Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross LIB DEM HOLD; Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (Labour marginal number 12, majority 1134, Dave Thompson SNP) LIB DEM GAIN; Ochil & Perthshire South (Labour marginal number 9, majority 821, Annabelle Ewing) LAB HOLD; Clwyd West (Labour marginal number 15, majority 1115) CON GAIN; Shrewsbury & Atcham (Labour marginal number 34) CON GAIN; Dartford (Labour marginal number 35) LAB HOLD
03:00
Score: Labour 233, Liberal Democrat 25, Conservative 48, SNP 3, PC 1
Dumfries & Galloway (Labour marginal number 1, majority 141) LAB HOLD; Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Labour marginal number 80) CON GAIN; Edinburgh East LAB; Edinburgh North & Leith LAB HOLD; Edinburgh South LAB HOLD; Edinburgh South West (Alistair Darling) LAB HOLD; Edinburgh West LIB-DEM HOLD; Gordon LIB DEM HOLD; Orkney & Shetland LIB DEM HOLD; Bexleyheath & Crayford (Labour marginal number 16, majority 1472) CON GAIN; Milton Keynes North East (Labour marginal number 17, majority 1829) CON GAIN; Selby (Labour marginal number 19, majority 2138) AB HOLD; Hammersmith & Fulham (Labour marginal number 20, majority 2015) CON GAIN; Wellingborough (Labour marginal number 23, majority 2355) CON GAIN; Gillingham (Labour marginal number 26, majority 2272) LAB HOLD; Enfield North (Labour marginal number 28, majority 2291) CON GAIN; Redditch (Labour marginal number 32) LAB HOLD; Scarborough & Whitby (Labour marginal number 36) CON GAIN; Bristol West (Labour marginal number 38) LIB DEM GAIN; Gloucester (Labour marginal number 40) LAB HOLD
03.30
Score: Labour 288, Liberal Democrat 36, Conservative 93, SNP 3, PC 2
Braintree (Labour marginal number 3, majority 358) CON GAIN; Preseli Pembrokeshire (Labour marginal number 39) CON GAIN
03:45
Ross, Skye & Lochaber (Charles Kennedy) LIB DEM HOLD
04:00
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine LIB DEM HOLD; Banff & Buchan (Alex Salmond) SNP HOLD; Folkestone & Hythe (Michael Howard) CON HOLD; Dorset South (Labour marginal number 2, majority 153) LAB HOLD; Lancaster & Wyre (Labour marginal number 5, majority 481) CON GAIN; Rugby & Kenilworth (Labour marginal number 25, majority 2877) CON GAIN
04.30
LABOUR win 324 seats and a majority.
Score: Labour 329, Liberal Democrat 51, Conservative 158, SNP 6, PC 2
Kettering (Labour marginal number 6, majority 665) CON GAIN; Forest of Dean (Labour marginal number 22, majority 2049) CON GAIN
05.00
Score: Labour 340, Liberal Democrat 53, Conservative 172, SNP 6, PC 2
05.30
Labour majority projected to be 66.
06.00
And now to bed.
12.00
Up again and nothing has changed.
The Labour majority is still thought to be 66.
Score: Labour 353, Liberal Democrat 61, Conservative 196, SNP 6, PC 2
24 seats still to be declared.
13.00
Argyll & Bute LIB DEM HOLD
election.press.net/constituencies_time.html
The full list of 80 Labour marginals is on the BBC website. If Labour lost all of these seats, and gained no others, they would lose their majority in Westminster.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/gainsandlosses_lab.stm
Posted by Simon Holledge at May 5, 2005 09:10 PM
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.skakagrall.com/cgi-bin/MT/mt-tb.cgi/413