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May 06, 2005

The 'Three-and-Six Government'

THe BBC is currently attributing 35.2% of the popular vote in the general election to Labour. I believe this is the UK vote, rather than the British, which may be 36 percent.

This is the lowest winning popular vote in British history.

I have checked back to 1832 and I can’t find any other figures so low, even for dominant partners in hung parliaments.

Elections from 1979 to 2001 were all won by 42 to 43 percent of the vote. The two 1974 elections were won with 39.2 and 37.9 perecntages respectively. The only other low figures were in the 1920s, and I think involved coalition governments (I must check this). Otherwise there are no cases of parties taking power with so little support.

Shall we point out the obvious? 36 per cent is not a popular mandate.

Posted by Simon Holledge at May 6, 2005 10:35 PM

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Comments

Well, as always, I voted SNP and am utterly gutted that where I stay (Edinburgh South) Nigel Griffiths got 14,183 votes and Graham Sutherland only got 2,635. But, at least one of that paltry 2,635 votes was mine. This stinking FPTP voting system..! It's so depressing to cast your vote knowing fine your boy's got absolutely no chance of getting in, but then again, even what appears to be a wasted vote does I suppose register support for the party. But I sometimes wonder if I'll ever see Scottish independence in my lifetime - and I'm only 35. Oh HOW we need change!

Posted by: Croila at May 7, 2005 12:05 AM

"what appears to be a wasted vote does I suppose register support for the party"

Exactly. I don't think I have ever cast a truly significant vote in any election, but we all contribute to the statistics.

The 6-seat result for the SNP was respectable. As Alex Salmond said at the press conference, this election was played out with the mainstream media concentrating on the three main UK parties. The Scottish election in 2007 will be different.

I believe electoral reform is now unstoppable in Scotland. The STV-based local elections are going to make a big difference to Scottish political culture.

I agree with Salmond that independence is inevitable, albeit in the context of an interdependent world - in a time frame of about 10 to 30 years.

Whether the SNP will be able to position itself to lead Scotland to this goal may be an open question. The Liberal Democrats have done well in this election and could pose a considerable electoral challenge to the SNP if they disengage from Labour and take up more radical policies.

Posted by: Simon Holledge at May 7, 2005 03:41 PM

This election was never going to be the SNP's election. Living in Dundee East you get spoilt as most of the council seats in this constituency are held by the SNP. Also we have an MSP. What you have to remember that we did not win here just because we wanted to win but it is the product of hard graft over three decades. You have to go out door knocking/phoning and collecting all the data and using the data. That is how we won here. When Gordon Wilson lost his seat in 1987 some thought that was the end of the SNP in Dundee. Well we have proved them wrong. It was a long slog but we got there.

Croila, don't give up hope. The LibDem vote rise is due to the unfair media cover they got compared to what we had. For every minute we received, they received an hour. What was being presented by the LibDems was their policies in England. They got the protest vote. It was not a vote for their muddled policies. Not many people watching the news would have been aware of that. I am old enough to have seen the Liberals have the electoral vote rise in 1983 (they got a bigger percentage then) only for it to fade away again.

The elections in 2007 will be on a much fairer media coverage. Also with the list vote and provided the party take this vote much more seriously than before then we can do much better than 2003. What was heartening was during the election campaign that has just passed, many voters said they will not vote for us at the General Election but will at the Scottish Elections. There appears to be a differential vote. With Alex's media presence we will do far better than we have done in the past. What will do is take the Liberal's seriously and fight them on their double speak record.

Posted by: tom at May 9, 2005 07:33 PM

Tom,

Congratulations on the Dundee East result.

"many voters said they will not vote for us at the General Election but will at the Scottish Elections"

What was their logic? Did these people vote Lib Dem?

Posted by: Simon Holledge at May 11, 2005 07:57 PM

No. They tend to be Labour voters in the main. We don't find many LibDem voters or profess to be LibDems in these parts. Also quite a few voters now will vote in the Scottish Elections only and are notinterested in Westminster. We have to remind them that all elections are important.

Posted by: tom at May 11, 2005 08:48 PM

Do the people you are talking about vote anti-Tory = Labour at General elections and pro-SNP at Holyrood ones?

Here in Stirling the local Tory made a huge song and dance, talking up his chances, but only improved his vote by 1 percent. Perhaps he also scared people away from SNP/Lib Dem to vote Labour?

Posted by: Simon Holledge at May 11, 2005 10:07 PM