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June 03, 2005
After the Dutch 'Nee'
Most politicians have little use for forethought. They prefer to let events unfold, see reactions (particularly those in trashy newspapers) and posture accordingly. (This is especially true of the British variety who are adept at speaking rather than listening, reading or writing.) Followship rather than leadership. So it is with our politicians who now suddenly declare that the European constitution is dead, after the French and Dutch rejection of the treaty.
In fact national governments are obligated to proceed to ratification (whether by legislature or referendum), knowing full well that the process, may be incomplete. It’s implicit that the process can only be abandoned if more than five countries turn it down (article IV-443). This hasn’t happened yet.
British government policy towards Europe has been a series of mistakes and provocations from the decision to hold a referendum on a complicated document that nobody was going to read (thereby turning it into a vote about something else), to Iraq, the failure to adopt the euro, and the numerous red lines and opt outs (from the more enlightened European policies) all the way to the various subterfuges to retain the rebate. With friends like Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, Europe hardly needs enemies.
There is an interesting comparison here between the EU treaty and the Kyoto Protocol on climate change. Some people claimed that the latter was dead, ‘meaningless’ etc. after American rejection, but in the end ratification by other countries did go ahead because, as with the EU treaty, there was no ‘Plan B’ that could be put in its place.
Regretfully, I assume what happens now is that the government arrange for the European Union bill to be waylayed and tripped up somewhere in the corridors of Westminster. Perfidious Albion indeed!
news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4601439.stm
UPDATE 4 June 2005
In retrospect I seem to have staked out the Barroso/Schroeder position. I should also acknwledge Bill Cameron’s careful piece, although his conclusions differ from mine.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4602515.stm
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4606879.stm
billcameron.blogspot.com/2005/06/netherlands-delivers-its-no-verdict.html
Posted by Simon Holledge at June 3, 2005 09:39 AM
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