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May 31, 2005
Tourism revisited
Gillian Bowditch has contributed another good article about Scottish tourism to the Scotsman. She writes:
“Tourism is one of the few industries where no entry qualification is needed and where its “operatives” … need no formal skills or training. Too often, it shows.”
news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=588982005
Posted by Simon Holledge at 11:19 AM | TrackBack
May 30, 2005
The French 'Non'
It is difficult to see the French result in anything but negative terms. The French were voting against a lot of things, not just the new constitution, but where does that leave them? Where does that leave us?
In one sense the French have created their own problem, which they have to solve through their own politics. Assuming they don’t want to reject Europe outright, they will have to explain to the other countries what kind of Europe they want to be part of.
The treaty was not an ambitious document. It was the product of past agreements and lengthily, tortuously, negotiated compromises. It is hard to see how it could be renegotiated. Impossible to see how the document could be re-thought to appeal more to popular opinion in different countries, when it is being rejected for such contradictory reasons.
Europe now has 25 members and is no longer ‘unthinkable’ without French participation. So the process of ratification by other countries has to continue - with the implicit assumption that France will re-engage in the process at some point.
It is unfortunate that in Britain’s case, the ratification is not a parliamentary one. Referendums - the form of democracy most favoured by Hitler and Mussolini - are rarely performed in a clear-cut, straight-forward and objective manner. The government in power, other political groups, and the local mainstream media all attempt to use the vote for their own ends.
In this case I can’t imagine a more discredited advocate for the treaty than Blair, but since the prime minister, in his moment of weakness, agreed to hold a referendum, then the government should ‘bring it on’. Who knows British Eurosceptics may be so flattered by the French rejecting the treaty for being too ‘Anglo-Saxon’ that they are persuaded to vote ‘Yes’!
Posted by Simon Holledge at 01:59 PM | TrackBack
May 27, 2005
Fidelio in Glasgow
For the last production of the 2004-5 season, Scottish Opera revived its 1994 production of Fidelio. The first performance on 25 May was a gritty, lumpy, choppy affair which finally won out against its flaws to deliver the powerful message of the drama.
The success of the evening was largely die to the supporting singers. Ulrich Dünnebach was a fine Rocco, singing with such beauty, elegance and good diction that the jailer could have been mistaken as one of the heroes of the drama. Sharper direction might have made it clearer that he was there for the money rather than to rescue Fidelio! Sarah Redgwick was an enchanting Marzelline with beautiful diction. No doubt a singer to watch in the future. Peter Sidhom was a manic, blustery Don Pizarro who shouted as much as he sang, but was absolutely effective as the villain.
Elizabeth Byrne has an attractive youthful voice, but from her first entry as Fidelio/Leonore it was apparent that she would be paying less attention to the text than the other singers. She also had a tendency to be shrill. For some reason the production did not include any transformation from the male Fidelio to the female Leonore (normally indicated by the soprano letting her hair down, donning a skirt or whatever) and poor jilted Marzelline may have been left wondering whether her Fidelio in the badly-fitting grey suit had turned out to be gay. As Florestan, Ian Storey produced ringing, dramatic tones, but without being able to sustain the music, and the words, to the ends of the lines.
The orchestra of Scottish Opera can often be the true hero of the night but on this occasion they were off form, with intonation problems and wrong notes. Richard Armstrong began the evening with a choppy account of the overture, and proceeded with a reading that was consistently dramatic, rather than smooth or beautiful.
The production was updated to a 20th-century ‘gulag’. A black, curtain-less set was used, divided into small, separately-revealed spaces, that was only opened up, full stage, for the prisoners’ chorus. This was effective, though it left the singers with little personal space to manoeuvre in, to the extent that it was possible to notice when they weren’t followed the blocking!
Unfortunately some short, over the top, effects spoilt the general austerity of the conception: simultaneous purple, yellow and red lighting of the climax to the dungeon scene and a sudden backcloth of incongruous skyscrapers right at the end of the opera. Simon Daw was credited, unusually, as ‘Revival Designer’, after Stewart Laing as ‘Original designer’, implying that the sets had been changed to some extent, while Tim Albery returned as director.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 11:57 PM | TrackBack
May 23, 2005
Vikings and Picts
Did the Vikings ‘ethnically cleanse’ the Picts out of the Orkneys? Archaeological excavations at Langskaill Farm in Westray show an abrupt transition in material culture from that of the original population to the Norsemen. However that does not necessarily mean that the Picts were all wiped out.
Some research has been done on ‘Viking’ DNA in the Orkneys and we obviously have information about the Norsemen from history and historical linguistics. What do we know about the Picts? Have any DNA haplotypes been identified as relating to a non-immigrant population? It seems we still know only one side of the story.
It’s worth noting that the Orkneyjar website has a wealth of information about the heritage of the islands.
www.theherald.co.uk/news/39364.html
www.orkneyjar.com/archaeology/langskaill.htm
www.orkneyjar.com/history/vikingorkney/warpeace/index.html
Posted by Simon Holledge at 01:35 AM | TrackBack
May 22, 2005
Leum Uilleim
Looking down from Leum Uilleim across Rannoch Moor Photo © SCH
Yesterday I drove to Bridge of Orchy with some friends from Callander, and we took the West Highland Line to Corrour Halt to walk up Leum Uilleim or ‘William’s Leap’, a Corbett opposite the station overlooking Rannoch Moor. Leum Uilleim is 906 metres - almost a Munro - but as Corrour is already 406 metres, the climb is fairly easy.
We experienced a comprehensive demonstration of Scottish weather including sunshine, hail, and five or six showers accompanied by five rainbows. Of these one was a intense double, and another we saw from above shimmering over the peat.
It was interesting to see many old tree stumps in the peat - clear evidence of recent environmental change.
Loch Ossian, near Corrour Station on the West Highland Line Photo © SCH
Posted by Simon Holledge at 09:19 PM | TrackBack
Government back more wind turbines
Malcolm Wicks will pledge strong support for wind power in order to meet the government target of generating 10 per cent of Britain’s electricity from renewables by 2010.
observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,6903,1489792,00.html?gusrc=rss
Posted by Simon Holledge at 07:57 PM | TrackBack
May 21, 2005
PIEcast podcast
Further to my note about Tartanpodcast (19 May), here is another Scottish podcaster.
Partners in Excellence (PiE) of Kilmarnock, who provide foreign language materials for schools in Argyll & Bute, East Ayrshire and North Ayrshire, have produced eight podcasts (in French, German and Spanish) since 11 April.
Their other activities include blogging, radio broadcasts and film making and their website includes a useful introduction to audio technologies.
Language learners in southwest Scotland are lucky to have access to all these resources. (What happens in other parts of the country, I wonder?) This must be one of the best applications of new technology to education that I’ve seen so far.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 02:16 PM | TrackBack
May 20, 2005
Edinburgh skyscraper alert?
The council have appointed the English architectural company Colvin & Moggridge to look at a planning strategy for new buildings for the 21st century.
news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=545692005
Posted by Simon Holledge at 04:00 PM | TrackBack
Scottish emissions remain high
Scotland’s performance on reducing greenhouse gas emissions lags behind that of the UK as a whole, according to a report by the Scottish Parliament’s environment committee.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4557989.stm
Posted by Simon Holledge at 01:06 PM | TrackBack
Taser stun guns for G8
Scottish police will be armed with Taser stun guns during the G8 summit. Could these potentially-lethal weapons be used against unarmed protesters?
Have the Association of Chief Police Officers in Scotland (ACPOS) read the Amnesty report on the misuse of these weapons (see below)?
news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=550602005
www.amnestyusa.org/countries/usa/document.do?id=1A01E91E134A327080256F190042408D
Posted by Simon Holledge at 01:06 PM | TrackBack
The Independent Campaign for Democracy
The Independent Campaign for Democracy is addressing this letter to Tony Blair:
“Dear Mr Blair,
I believe that the result of this month’s election, in which your government was elected with a 67-seat majority on 36% of the popular vote and with the support of 22% of the electorate, is a subversion of our democracy.
I call on you, in your final term as Prime Minister, to institute urgent reform of our voting system so that the British people are encouraged to believe that their votes count and that the result of a general election is more representative of their wishes.”
You can sign the letter at:
www.independent.co.uk/cfd/democracy.jsp
[Thanks to Murky.org for the link.]
Posted by Simon Holledge at 12:31 AM | TrackBack
May 19, 2005
Tartan podcasting
Podcasting has reached Scotland - not only that but the Glasgow-based Tartanpodcast launched in March claims to be the top-ranked music podcaster in Britain and has been featured on American podcasts!
Many congratulations! There’s a wrap problem on the website and it’s not my kind of music, but that isn’t important. (There’s also a directory of Scottish podcasts but the link doesn’t work for me.)
The BBC are also dabbling in podcasting. I have just downloaded the Radio 4 Today programme (14 minutes/4 megabytes) and Roddy Maclean’s “Letter to Gaelic Learners” from Radio nan Gaidheal is also on offer.
It’s worth noting that you don’t need an iPod to listen to mp3 files. You can hear them just as well over your computer speakers!
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4508329.stm
www.bbc.co.uk/radio/downloadtrial
Posted by Simon Holledge at 12:30 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
May 18, 2005
Lewis wind farm update
Opposition is hardening to the 234-turbine Lewis wind farm, and experts are pointing out potential environmental damage that could be caused by the project. Fair enough! Lewis may be the wrong place for it.
Nevertheless I understand - and I am open to correction - that we would need a total of 6,850 turbines to replace the electricity currently produced by the two major carbon dioxide emitting coal-fired power stations at Longannet and Cockenzie, let alone the nuclear ones.
Can we afford development of this scale in Scotland, and if so, can we go through all the necessary planning procedures and build the farms fast enough to be effective in reducing emissions? At present we only have about 350 turbines in operation.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4557255.stm
Posted by Simon Holledge at 06:10 PM | TrackBack
ID card refusal pledge
There is one major project on the Pledge Bank:
“I will refuse to register for an ID card but only if 3,000,000 people will sign up.”
Deadline: 1st January 2007
189 people have signed up (18 May 2005)
2,999,811 more needed
Posted by Simon Holledge at 03:27 PM | TrackBack
Pledge Bank website
mySociety (of TheyWorkForYou.com and WriteToThem.com) are testing a pledge bank website.
Here is an example of a current pledge: “I will write to my MP asking for free Wireless Internet access in the British Library but only if 20 other people will pledge to write to their MP to ask for it too. (48 days left), 7 more needed”
CORRECTION 19 May 05
mySociety do not publish TheyWorkForYou.com. They do produce NotApathetic.com.
UPDATE 4 June 2055
PledgeBank.com will be publicly launched on 13 June with a set of special launch day pledges.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 02:39 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
May 17, 2005
BBC weather map
There used to be a humorous map of England in which civilization finished just north of London. Beyond Watford there were signs saying, ‘No roads beyond this point’, ‘Travellers beware’, ‘The Great Bog’, ‘Here be monsters’ etc. Of course the joke was not aimed at Scotland, it didn’t get that far!
That map could almost have been the model for the new ‘southern-perspective’ BBC weather map, tilting back and away from the camera.
Angus MacNeil, the new SNP MP for Na h-Eileanan an Iar (the Western Isles), has put down an early day motion in the Commons asking the BBC to change its graphics, and the SNP page includes a link to the BBC complaints page.
But perhaps we are taking this too seriously? The map is such a perfect representation of the London mindset that it ought to be preserved. What we need is a new Scottish-based broadcasting company.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4556025.stm
www.snp.org/snpnews/2005/snppressrelease.2005-05-17.5450497593
UPDATE 28 May 2005
Following 4,000 complaints, the BBC have altered the tilt of the weather map.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/tvandradio/4589301.stm
www.snp.org/snpnews/2005/snppressrelease.2005-05-27.5697330162
UPDATE 30 May 2005
Amy currently has an ugly graphics google-bombing campaign against the new weather map.
mysite.wanadoo-members.co.uk/googlebombbbcweather/weather.html
Posted by Simon Holledge at 11:09 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Princes Street traffic
Now that cars are banned from using Princes Street (in both directions) from 7am until 8pm each day, people are complaining about dangerously speeding buses, according to a report by Angie Brown in the Scotsman.
While I’d personally like to see a one-way circle system using Princes Street and Queen Street together with extensive car-free zoning, I doubt if piecemeal alterations to Edinburgh’s traffic system can ever be successful. We need a comprehensive transport plan that takes into account commercial, environmental and heritage factors, transportation needs and traffic flows.
news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=535712005
Posted by Simon Holledge at 10:44 AM | TrackBack
May 16, 2005
Once upon a time etc.
Once upon a time, I lived in a land where all the trains, buses, and trams ran on time, where the shops never closed, where the telephone always worked, where my broadband internet connection never went down, where the gas and electricity companies never overcharged, where all the primary school children could read and write, where I could go and see a specialist hospital doctor without an appointment, and indeed many other good things.
However, I am here now and this week I lost my internet connection four times. Three times due to my ISP allegedly using ‘rogue’, i.e. dead, IPs (although the real rogue is probably the fake Surrey-served Dumfries ISP), and once, but for much longer, through the BT line going down.
If I want to communicate with my ISP I have to call a special line either costing 50p, or 1 pound, a minute. To report a BT fault I also have to pay. The logic appears to be that because complaints are annoying to the company, the customer should have to pay extra for them. I suppose almost all large British companies have arrangements to frustrate complaints.
I try to avoid all large English-based companies whenever possible. (I have changed my gas and electricity from Scottish Gas (another front, this time for British Gas) to Scottish Hydro in Perth who answer the phone promptly and try to solve problems. Scottish companies are invariably better.)
Unfortunately BT are unavoidable. They still have an effective monopoly as they are still allowed to own the wires and exchanges. My first BT call (by mobile) was apparently to Leicester. They told me there was a fault on the telephone pole outside our house, which would be affecting our neighbours. This turned out to be untrue. They refused to give me any contact details for my local BT engineering office,and I still don’t know whether it is in Stirling or Edinburgh. In the end I had to wait more than 51 hours for an engineer to come and fix the fault.
Meanwhile, our major politicians talk up Britain and its economic achievements. Michael Howard said during the election that we live in the fourth richest country in the world, although calculated in the normal way by GDP per capita the United Kingdom is nowhere near the top ten.
Tony Blair (or Gordon Brown? or both?) was also taking about Britain being the fourth largest economy. This claim is only true if you suspend common sense, ignore the over-valuation of sterling in terms of the dollar, and overlook the fact that economic activity in the largest countries (China, India, Indonesia, Brazil etc.) is barely measured. It’s also worth noting that France and Italy each have economies of almost exactly the same size as the UK and the smallest currency realignment can affect the order in which we are listed.
Why do politicians indulge in this ‘feel-good’ flattery tactic? Labour obviously want to persuade people that they are doing a good job. Any government that has been in power for eight years would do the same, but why should the Conservatives and the other parties join in? Arguably the Conservatives lost the election for lack of an economic policy. Did the Liberal Democrats ever have one?
Britain suffers from abysmally bad services, poor environment, poor education, poor food. There is some growth in the economy which is good, but productivity and general standards are still much lower than in many economies that currently have none.
Economic growth does not necessarily bring a good standard of life. People in Britain have low expectations. They expect hospitals to be dirty and disorganized, motorways blocked, trains and buses late, phones broken, city centres vandalized, streets dirty, children rebellious. They don’t expect to know what is happening. They don’t expect to be consulted. They don’t expect to participate.
The problem is essentially low productivity (related to poor education) and this brings me back to where I started - the bad service which is symptomatic of the problems of the economy.
Basta! Enough for now!
Posted by Simon Holledge at 11:32 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
May 12, 2005
BBC Complaints
I have just discovered that there is an official BBC complaints page. Maybe worth a bookmark?
Posted by Simon Holledge at 10:51 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
May 11, 2005
Beavers to be re-introduced
Scottish Natural Heritage have decided in favour of the re-introduction of the European beaver to Scotland after an absence of 400 years. It is now up to the Scottish Executive to agree to the release of some 20 animals to Forestry Commission land in Knapdale, Argyll.
Beavers are regarded as a ‘keystone species’ because of their special influence on wetland ecosystems to the benefit of other flora and fauna. They have been re-introduced to many parts of Europe.
(Thanks to Stuart Dickson for information about this project.)
www.snh.org.uk/pdfs/strategy/beaversappendix.pdf
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4534623.stm
Posted by Simon Holledge at 04:24 PM | TrackBack
May 10, 2005
Ancient woodland petition deadline 13 May
The closing date to sign the Holyrood petition to protect ancient woodland in Scotland is May 13. Ths petition is supported by Woodland Trust Scotland. 2,361 people have signed so far. The page is here:
epetitions.scottish.parliament.uk/viewtopic.asp?TopicID=51
www.woodland-trust.org.uk/news/subindex.asp?aid=916
Posted by Simon Holledge at 09:49 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
May 09, 2005
I Voted For You Because.com
mySociety have set up another of their excellent political websites.
This one is called ‘IVotedForYouBecause.com’. It provides an opportunity for electors to send a message to their newly elected MPs.
After a few weeks, the website will collate all the messages, constituency by constituency, and send them to the MPs.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 05:26 PM | TrackBack
May 06, 2005
Stirling result
The result of my own constituency was much as I expected: Labour won with a majority reduced by 7 per cent (Anne McGuire, 15,729, majority 4,767).
Before the election I argued that the Tories had already maximized their vote and couldn’t hope for much better. I was correct there (Kerr, Conservative, 10,962, plus 1.4 per cent).
The SNP did poorly (McGlinchey 5,503, minus 4.5 percent) whereas the Liberal Democrats improved their vote by 9.2 percent (Holdsworth 9,052).
This implies that Stirling will become a Liberal Democrat challenged seat in future elections.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/728.stm
Posted by Simon Holledge at 11:21 PM | TrackBack
The 'Three-and-Six Government'
THe BBC is currently attributing 35.2% of the popular vote in the general election to Labour. I believe this is the UK vote, rather than the British, which may be 36 percent.
This is the lowest winning popular vote in British history.
I have checked back to 1832 and I can’t find any other figures so low, even for dominant partners in hung parliaments.
Elections from 1979 to 2001 were all won by 42 to 43 percent of the vote. The two 1974 elections were won with 39.2 and 37.9 perecntages respectively. The only other low figures were in the 1920s, and I think involved coalition governments (I must check this). Otherwise there are no cases of parties taking power with so little support.
Shall we point out the obvious? 36 per cent is not a popular mandate.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 10:35 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
Blogging the dawn
I attempted to follow all the Scottish seats and the top 40 Labour marginals - entirely on the internet, without a television. Before counting started, I had listed all these seats with approximate declaration times.
It was impossible.
The declaration times given by the Press Asociation were wildly wrong - not surprising perhaps considering that almost all of the Scottish seat boundaries have been re-drawn. BBC coverage (I was watching a video feed) was good but erratic and perhaps biased towards England.
I used two machines but lacked computing power. Declarations were coming in too fast and I couldn’t keep up. Friends at Boris-Johnson.com and Chicken Yoghurt decided to ‘live blog’ the night but in the end there was no time to check other blogs. Next time some division of labour (in both senses) will be necessary.
However the possibility of a lower than expected majority for Labour, and the complicated regional differences, made the unfolding process more exciting than I expected and I stayed up until about 6 am, well past the dawn, surviving on coffee, Pittenweem oatcakes and raspberries etc. (graphic pictures follows).
The CY Election Liveblog Guide Bloggers following the Election Live Chicken Yoghurt Europhobia Nick Barlow Doctor Vee Ryan Morrison Curious Hamster Small Town Scribble Phil @ Cabalamat Gordon Brown The UK Today Backword Dave Dear Kitty davblog qwghlm.co.uk If You’ve a Blacklist Masochist’s Dictionary Red Pepper Militant Moderates The Skakagrall
Posted by Simon Holledge at 02:47 PM | TrackBack
May 05, 2005
Election night timetable
Here are approximate times for all the Scottish constituency declarations, and the top 40 Labour marginals (plus a few others), based on information from SNP HQ, the Press Association and the BBC and qwghim blog:
May 5, 22.08 pm
BBC exit polls based on 19,800 voters at 120 polling stations are indicating a Labour majority of 66 (down from 160). The Conservatives are thought to be up, but the Liberal Democrats are projected to lose 2 seats in total, winning against Labour but losing against the Tories. The share of the vote is anticipated to be Labour 37%, Conservatives 33% and Liberal Democrats 22%.
Boris Johnson writes on his blog: “I am … full of confidence that whatever happens we are now seeing the end of the Blair premiership. Even if - which I do not for a moment concede - Tony Blair hangs on to his job tonight, he will find it increasingly unbearable. Not only will he face a revived and invigorated Tory party, but also ranged behind him will be the vengeful spirits of his backbenchers …”
www.boris-johnson.com/archives/2005/05/election_2005.html
22.45
Sunderland South declares first: Labour hold, turnout 49%.
Other declarations: Sutherland North. Labour hold, turnout 50%. Houghton & Washington East. Labour hold. Rutherglen & Hamilton West. Labour Hold. 7% swing to Lib Dems.
May 6, 00.15 am
Barnsley Central. Labour hold. More Labour seats held: Rotherham, Vauxhall, Hull West and Hessle, Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend, Newcastle upon Tyne Central, Tyne Bridge
PUTNEY Con. win
More Labour seats held: Eccles, Newcastle upon Tyne North and more than I can note here …
00.45
Thanet South (Labour marginal number 21, majority 1792)
01.00
Score: Labour 40 seats, Liberal Democrat 2, Conservative 1, SNP 1
Angus (Mike Weir) SNP HOLD ; Dunbartonshire West LAB; Dunfermline & Fife West LAB; Falkirk LAB; Fife North East (Menzies Campbell) LIB DEM HOLD; Glenrothes LAB HOLD; Kilmarnock & Loudoun LAB HOLD; Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (Gordon Brown) LAB HOLD majority up; Lanark & Hamilton East LAB HOLD; Linlithgow & Falkirk East LAB HOLD; Livingston (Robin Cook) LAB HOLD; Paisley & Renfrewshire North LAB; Paisley & Renfrewshire South LAB; Blackburn (Jack Straw) LAB Hold; Ynys Mon (Labour marginal number 11, majority 800) LAB HOLD; Oldham East & Saddleworth (Labour marginal number 29, majority 2796) LAB HOLD; Calder Valley (Labour marginal number 31) LAB HOLD; Peterborough (Labour marginal number 33) CON GAIN
01:15
Score: Labour 67 seats, Liberal Democrat 3, Conservative 4, SNP 1
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Labour marginal number 43, Angus McNeil SNP) SNP GAIN
East Lothian LAB HOLD; Sedgefield (Tony Blair) Lab Hold
PETERBOROUGH Con Gain NEWBURY Con Gain
Score: Labour 70 seats, Liberal Democrat 3, Conservative 4, SNP 2
01:30
Dundee East (Labour marginal number 7, majority 496, Stewart Hosie SNP) SNP GAIN ; Dundee West (Joe FitzPatrick SNP) LAB HOLD; East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow LAB Hold; Glasgow Central LAB HOLD; Glasgow East LAB HOLD; Glasgow North LAB HOLD; Glasgow North East LAB HOLD; Glasgow North West LAB; Glasgow South LAB; Glasgow South West LAB HOLD; Perth & Perthshire North (Pete Wishart) SNP HOLD; Renfrewshire East; Welwyn Hatfield (Labour marginal number 13, majority 1196) CON GAIN; Shipley (Labour marginal number 14, majority 1428) CON GAIN; Ilford North (Labour marginal number 24, majority 2115) CON GAIN
01:45
Score: Labour 107 seats, Liberal Democrat 8, Conservative 12, SNP 2, PC 1
BBC are saying that it is still impossible to make any forcast because of the variety and complexity of the results.
01:52
So the BBC are making their first prediction: Labour 357 majority 68 Conservative 201 Liberal Democrat 59
Airdrie & Shotts (John Reid) LAB HOLD; Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill LAB; Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East LAB; Motherwell & Wishaw LAB
02:00
Score: Labour 137, Liberal Democrat 12, Conservative 16, SNP 2, PC 1
Aberdeen North (Kevin Stewart SNP) LAB HOLD; Aberdeen South (Labour marginal number 56) LAB HOLD; Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock LAB; Ayrshire Central LAB HOLD; Ayrshire North & Arran LAB HOLD ; Dunbartonshire East (Labour marginal number 30) LIB DEM GAIN; Inverclyde LAB; Moray (Angus Robertson) SNP HOLD; Stirling LAB HOLD; Monmouth (Labour marginal number 4, majority 384) CON GAIN; Northampton South (Labour marginal number 8, majority 885) CON GAIN; Cardiff Central (Labour marginal number 10, majority 659) LIB DEM GAIN; Hornchurch (Labour marginal number 18, majority 1482) CON GAIN; Harwich (Labour marginal number 27, majority 2596) CON GAIN; Hove (Labour marginal number 37) LAB HOLD
02:15
Score: Labour 186, Liberal Democrat 19, Conservative 29, SNP 2, PC 1
Midlothian
02:30
Score: Labour 207, Liberal Democrat 22, Conservative 34, SNP 2, PC 1
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk LIB DEM HOLD; Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross LIB DEM HOLD; Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (Labour marginal number 12, majority 1134, Dave Thompson SNP) LIB DEM GAIN; Ochil & Perthshire South (Labour marginal number 9, majority 821, Annabelle Ewing) LAB HOLD; Clwyd West (Labour marginal number 15, majority 1115) CON GAIN; Shrewsbury & Atcham (Labour marginal number 34) CON GAIN; Dartford (Labour marginal number 35) LAB HOLD
03:00
Score: Labour 233, Liberal Democrat 25, Conservative 48, SNP 3, PC 1
Dumfries & Galloway (Labour marginal number 1, majority 141) LAB HOLD; Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Labour marginal number 80) CON GAIN; Edinburgh East LAB; Edinburgh North & Leith LAB HOLD; Edinburgh South LAB HOLD; Edinburgh South West (Alistair Darling) LAB HOLD; Edinburgh West LIB-DEM HOLD; Gordon LIB DEM HOLD; Orkney & Shetland LIB DEM HOLD; Bexleyheath & Crayford (Labour marginal number 16, majority 1472) CON GAIN; Milton Keynes North East (Labour marginal number 17, majority 1829) CON GAIN; Selby (Labour marginal number 19, majority 2138) AB HOLD; Hammersmith & Fulham (Labour marginal number 20, majority 2015) CON GAIN; Wellingborough (Labour marginal number 23, majority 2355) CON GAIN; Gillingham (Labour marginal number 26, majority 2272) LAB HOLD; Enfield North (Labour marginal number 28, majority 2291) CON GAIN; Redditch (Labour marginal number 32) LAB HOLD; Scarborough & Whitby (Labour marginal number 36) CON GAIN; Bristol West (Labour marginal number 38) LIB DEM GAIN; Gloucester (Labour marginal number 40) LAB HOLD
03.30
Score: Labour 288, Liberal Democrat 36, Conservative 93, SNP 3, PC 2
Braintree (Labour marginal number 3, majority 358) CON GAIN; Preseli Pembrokeshire (Labour marginal number 39) CON GAIN
03:45
Ross, Skye & Lochaber (Charles Kennedy) LIB DEM HOLD
04:00
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine LIB DEM HOLD; Banff & Buchan (Alex Salmond) SNP HOLD; Folkestone & Hythe (Michael Howard) CON HOLD; Dorset South (Labour marginal number 2, majority 153) LAB HOLD; Lancaster & Wyre (Labour marginal number 5, majority 481) CON GAIN; Rugby & Kenilworth (Labour marginal number 25, majority 2877) CON GAIN
04.30
LABOUR win 324 seats and a majority.
Score: Labour 329, Liberal Democrat 51, Conservative 158, SNP 6, PC 2
Kettering (Labour marginal number 6, majority 665) CON GAIN; Forest of Dean (Labour marginal number 22, majority 2049) CON GAIN
05.00
Score: Labour 340, Liberal Democrat 53, Conservative 172, SNP 6, PC 2
05.30
Labour majority projected to be 66.
06.00
And now to bed.
12.00
Up again and nothing has changed.
The Labour majority is still thought to be 66.
Score: Labour 353, Liberal Democrat 61, Conservative 196, SNP 6, PC 2
24 seats still to be declared.
13.00
Argyll & Bute LIB DEM HOLD
election.press.net/constituencies_time.html
The full list of 80 Labour marginals is on the BBC website. If Labour lost all of these seats, and gained no others, they would lose their majority in Westminster.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/gainsandlosses_lab.stm
Posted by Simon Holledge at 09:10 PM | TrackBack
The impossible swing?
To illustrate the immensity of the task of challenging Labour under the present system, here are a list of the biggest swings between the Conservatives and Labour since 1945.
1945 12% swing from the national government to Labour
1950 2.9% swing from Labour to the Conservatives
1964 3.1% swing from the Conservatives to Labour
1966 2.8% swing from Labour to the Conservatives
1970 4.9% swing from Labour to the Conservatives
1979 5.3% swing from Labour to the Conservatives
1983 4.1% swing from Labour to the Conservatives
1997 10.2% swing from the Conservatives to Labour
www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/notes/snSG-02608.pdf
Posted by Simon Holledge at 07:40 PM | TrackBack
Political entertainment
Need voting inspiration? I recommend eclectech’s ‘Smirk a little smirk’, and don’t miss the ending!
On the other hand ‘this town ain’t big enough’ is over the top and may induce voting paralysis:
www.spinon.co.uk/content/thistown
On a serious note there is Backing Blair’s ‘Iraq in 30 seconds’:
www.backingblair.co.uk/iraq_war
Posted by Simon Holledge at 06:02 PM | TrackBack
The Skakagrall's simplistic election guide 05
This may be absurdly simplistic, but focusing on the 80 most marginal Labour seats, and making some assumptions, I note:
2% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 10 seats
4.5% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 20 seats
6% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 30 seats
8% anti-Labour swing= Labour lose 40 seats
9% anti-Labour swing= Labour lose 50 seats
10% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 60 seats
11% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 70 seats
12% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 80 seats and their majority in the House of Commons
Posted by Simon Holledge at 03:54 PM | TrackBack
SNP countdown poster 0
Posted by Simon Holledge at 12:25 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Election day weather
Callander’s Ben Ledi invisible in the rain Photo © SCH
The centre of Scotland is cold and wet this morning. The BBC say the south of England has better weather. We used to think this would be bad for Labour. I don’t know how true it remains today.
Callander’s ‘Polling Place’, cold and rainy but lots of flowers Photo © SCH
Most voters seem to be coming by car to our Primary School, the ‘Polling Place’. There are three sections (with three different numbers) inside, perhaps that is why it is a ‘place’ rather than a ‘station’?
I wasn’t allowed to take photographs inside. I seem to remember seeing pictures of politicians dropping their votes in the ballot boxes, but on second thoughts maybe that is abroad.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 12:22 PM | TrackBack
May 04, 2005
SNP countdown poster 1
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May 03, 2005
SNP countdown poster 2
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May 02, 2005
SNP countdown poster 3
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Blair Ditch Project
The Blair Ditch Project has news about the Sedgefield Against War organization and the campaign to ‘Do Labour a favour: vote Blair out’.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 02:26 PM | TrackBack
May 01, 2005
SNP countdown poster 4
Posted by Simon Holledge at 08:41 PM | TrackBack
Lowland clearances
Tom Devine, director of the Centre for Irish and Scottish Studies at Aberdeen University, is quoted at length on the Lowland Clearances, of the late 18th and early 19th centuries, by Leon McDermott in the Sunday Herald.
The Lowland Clearances caused more actual evictions than the Highland Clearances, but were more successful and left less bitterness, according to Devine’s analysis.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 06:29 PM | TrackBack
Labour fail Scottish arts
Sean Connery is attacking Labour’s lamentable record in the arts. He points out that we have had six arts ministers since devolution and none of them have acheived anything. The focus of his complaint is frustration over the delays in getting the Scottish National Photography Centre (SNPC) established in the former Royal High School on Edinburgh’s Calton Hill, despite a generous grant from Sony.
Ian Rankin’s broader criticism of arts policy is also quoted in the article by William Lyons:
The cultural strategies do not seem to be leading anywhere. What the art world desperately wants is decisions to be made and a minister who is going to stick around for more than 12 months.
We need continuity in this young Parliament. But what are we on now, our sixth cultural minister. We need someone who has experience of the arts world and you only get that with time.
Meanwhile we see other smaller countries doing much more with the arts. Look at Wales and their brand spanking new opera house. In Scotland we don’t even have an opera chorus. We spend too much time squabbling and shoot ourselves in the foot before we start.
And as I have argued before, Scotland needs a new national theatre and opera house as a focus for the performing arts in Scotland, to provide facilities to attract leading foreign companies to Scotland and revive the floundering Edinburgh International Festival.
As Connery points out [Labour] “talk about education, education, education” but the arts are for all, not just for reluctant (?) school kids. The arts can be influential in every aspect of our national life. Standards of literacy (traditional, visual and computer), communication skills, design sense etc. should be set in the arts world and applied in our economic, social and political (!) life.
The arts are also good value for money. Scottish artists, particularly performing artists, have a record of excellence that should be the envy of other sectors of the economy. We should be investing in them and in Scotland’s future as a leading European centre for the arts.