May 09, 2005
I Voted For You Because.com
mySociety have set up another of their excellent political websites.
This one is called ‘IVotedForYouBecause.com’. It provides an opportunity for electors to send a message to their newly elected MPs.
After a few weeks, the website will collate all the messages, constituency by constituency, and send them to the MPs.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 05:26 PM | TrackBack
May 06, 2005
Stirling result
The result of my own constituency was much as I expected: Labour won with a majority reduced by 7 per cent (Anne McGuire, 15,729, majority 4,767).
Before the election I argued that the Tories had already maximized their vote and couldn’t hope for much better. I was correct there (Kerr, Conservative, 10,962, plus 1.4 per cent).
The SNP did poorly (McGlinchey 5,503, minus 4.5 percent) whereas the Liberal Democrats improved their vote by 9.2 percent (Holdsworth 9,052).
This implies that Stirling will become a Liberal Democrat challenged seat in future elections.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/728.stm
Posted by Simon Holledge at 11:21 PM | TrackBack
The 'Three-and-Six Government'
THe BBC is currently attributing 35.2% of the popular vote in the general election to Labour. I believe this is the UK vote, rather than the British, which may be 36 percent.
This is the lowest winning popular vote in British history.
I have checked back to 1832 and I can’t find any other figures so low, even for dominant partners in hung parliaments.
Elections from 1979 to 2001 were all won by 42 to 43 percent of the vote. The two 1974 elections were won with 39.2 and 37.9 perecntages respectively. The only other low figures were in the 1920s, and I think involved coalition governments (I must check this). Otherwise there are no cases of parties taking power with so little support.
Shall we point out the obvious? 36 per cent is not a popular mandate.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 10:35 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
Blogging the dawn
I attempted to follow all the Scottish seats and the top 40 Labour marginals - entirely on the internet, without a television. Before counting started, I had listed all these seats with approximate declaration times.
It was impossible.
The declaration times given by the Press Asociation were wildly wrong - not surprising perhaps considering that almost all of the Scottish seat boundaries have been re-drawn. BBC coverage (I was watching a video feed) was good but erratic and perhaps biased towards England.
I used two machines but lacked computing power. Declarations were coming in too fast and I couldn’t keep up. Friends at Boris-Johnson.com and Chicken Yoghurt decided to ‘live blog’ the night but in the end there was no time to check other blogs. Next time some division of labour (in both senses) will be necessary.
However the possibility of a lower than expected majority for Labour, and the complicated regional differences, made the unfolding process more exciting than I expected and I stayed up until about 6 am, well past the dawn, surviving on coffee, Pittenweem oatcakes and raspberries etc. (graphic pictures follows).
The CY Election Liveblog Guide Bloggers following the Election Live Chicken Yoghurt Europhobia Nick Barlow Doctor Vee Ryan Morrison Curious Hamster Small Town Scribble Phil @ Cabalamat Gordon Brown The UK Today Backword Dave Dear Kitty davblog qwghlm.co.uk If You’ve a Blacklist Masochist’s Dictionary Red Pepper Militant Moderates The Skakagrall
Posted by Simon Holledge at 02:47 PM | TrackBack
May 05, 2005
Election night timetable
Here are approximate times for all the Scottish constituency declarations, and the top 40 Labour marginals (plus a few others), based on information from SNP HQ, the Press Association and the BBC and qwghim blog:
May 5, 22.08 pm
BBC exit polls based on 19,800 voters at 120 polling stations are indicating a Labour majority of 66 (down from 160). The Conservatives are thought to be up, but the Liberal Democrats are projected to lose 2 seats in total, winning against Labour but losing against the Tories. The share of the vote is anticipated to be Labour 37%, Conservatives 33% and Liberal Democrats 22%.
Boris Johnson writes on his blog: “I am … full of confidence that whatever happens we are now seeing the end of the Blair premiership. Even if - which I do not for a moment concede - Tony Blair hangs on to his job tonight, he will find it increasingly unbearable. Not only will he face a revived and invigorated Tory party, but also ranged behind him will be the vengeful spirits of his backbenchers …”
www.boris-johnson.com/archives/2005/05/election_2005.html
22.45
Sunderland South declares first: Labour hold, turnout 49%.
Other declarations: Sutherland North. Labour hold, turnout 50%. Houghton & Washington East. Labour hold. Rutherglen & Hamilton West. Labour Hold. 7% swing to Lib Dems.
May 6, 00.15 am
Barnsley Central. Labour hold. More Labour seats held: Rotherham, Vauxhall, Hull West and Hessle, Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend, Newcastle upon Tyne Central, Tyne Bridge
PUTNEY Con. win
More Labour seats held: Eccles, Newcastle upon Tyne North and more than I can note here …
00.45
Thanet South (Labour marginal number 21, majority 1792)
01.00
Score: Labour 40 seats, Liberal Democrat 2, Conservative 1, SNP 1
Angus (Mike Weir) SNP HOLD ; Dunbartonshire West LAB; Dunfermline & Fife West LAB; Falkirk LAB; Fife North East (Menzies Campbell) LIB DEM HOLD; Glenrothes LAB HOLD; Kilmarnock & Loudoun LAB HOLD; Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (Gordon Brown) LAB HOLD majority up; Lanark & Hamilton East LAB HOLD; Linlithgow & Falkirk East LAB HOLD; Livingston (Robin Cook) LAB HOLD; Paisley & Renfrewshire North LAB; Paisley & Renfrewshire South LAB; Blackburn (Jack Straw) LAB Hold; Ynys Mon (Labour marginal number 11, majority 800) LAB HOLD; Oldham East & Saddleworth (Labour marginal number 29, majority 2796) LAB HOLD; Calder Valley (Labour marginal number 31) LAB HOLD; Peterborough (Labour marginal number 33) CON GAIN
01:15
Score: Labour 67 seats, Liberal Democrat 3, Conservative 4, SNP 1
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Labour marginal number 43, Angus McNeil SNP) SNP GAIN
East Lothian LAB HOLD; Sedgefield (Tony Blair) Lab Hold
PETERBOROUGH Con Gain NEWBURY Con Gain
Score: Labour 70 seats, Liberal Democrat 3, Conservative 4, SNP 2
01:30
Dundee East (Labour marginal number 7, majority 496, Stewart Hosie SNP) SNP GAIN ; Dundee West (Joe FitzPatrick SNP) LAB HOLD; East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow LAB Hold; Glasgow Central LAB HOLD; Glasgow East LAB HOLD; Glasgow North LAB HOLD; Glasgow North East LAB HOLD; Glasgow North West LAB; Glasgow South LAB; Glasgow South West LAB HOLD; Perth & Perthshire North (Pete Wishart) SNP HOLD; Renfrewshire East; Welwyn Hatfield (Labour marginal number 13, majority 1196) CON GAIN; Shipley (Labour marginal number 14, majority 1428) CON GAIN; Ilford North (Labour marginal number 24, majority 2115) CON GAIN
01:45
Score: Labour 107 seats, Liberal Democrat 8, Conservative 12, SNP 2, PC 1
BBC are saying that it is still impossible to make any forcast because of the variety and complexity of the results.
01:52
So the BBC are making their first prediction: Labour 357 majority 68 Conservative 201 Liberal Democrat 59
Airdrie & Shotts (John Reid) LAB HOLD; Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill LAB; Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East LAB; Motherwell & Wishaw LAB
02:00
Score: Labour 137, Liberal Democrat 12, Conservative 16, SNP 2, PC 1
Aberdeen North (Kevin Stewart SNP) LAB HOLD; Aberdeen South (Labour marginal number 56) LAB HOLD; Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock LAB; Ayrshire Central LAB HOLD; Ayrshire North & Arran LAB HOLD ; Dunbartonshire East (Labour marginal number 30) LIB DEM GAIN; Inverclyde LAB; Moray (Angus Robertson) SNP HOLD; Stirling LAB HOLD; Monmouth (Labour marginal number 4, majority 384) CON GAIN; Northampton South (Labour marginal number 8, majority 885) CON GAIN; Cardiff Central (Labour marginal number 10, majority 659) LIB DEM GAIN; Hornchurch (Labour marginal number 18, majority 1482) CON GAIN; Harwich (Labour marginal number 27, majority 2596) CON GAIN; Hove (Labour marginal number 37) LAB HOLD
02:15
Score: Labour 186, Liberal Democrat 19, Conservative 29, SNP 2, PC 1
Midlothian
02:30
Score: Labour 207, Liberal Democrat 22, Conservative 34, SNP 2, PC 1
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk LIB DEM HOLD; Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross LIB DEM HOLD; Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (Labour marginal number 12, majority 1134, Dave Thompson SNP) LIB DEM GAIN; Ochil & Perthshire South (Labour marginal number 9, majority 821, Annabelle Ewing) LAB HOLD; Clwyd West (Labour marginal number 15, majority 1115) CON GAIN; Shrewsbury & Atcham (Labour marginal number 34) CON GAIN; Dartford (Labour marginal number 35) LAB HOLD
03:00
Score: Labour 233, Liberal Democrat 25, Conservative 48, SNP 3, PC 1
Dumfries & Galloway (Labour marginal number 1, majority 141) LAB HOLD; Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Labour marginal number 80) CON GAIN; Edinburgh East LAB; Edinburgh North & Leith LAB HOLD; Edinburgh South LAB HOLD; Edinburgh South West (Alistair Darling) LAB HOLD; Edinburgh West LIB-DEM HOLD; Gordon LIB DEM HOLD; Orkney & Shetland LIB DEM HOLD; Bexleyheath & Crayford (Labour marginal number 16, majority 1472) CON GAIN; Milton Keynes North East (Labour marginal number 17, majority 1829) CON GAIN; Selby (Labour marginal number 19, majority 2138) AB HOLD; Hammersmith & Fulham (Labour marginal number 20, majority 2015) CON GAIN; Wellingborough (Labour marginal number 23, majority 2355) CON GAIN; Gillingham (Labour marginal number 26, majority 2272) LAB HOLD; Enfield North (Labour marginal number 28, majority 2291) CON GAIN; Redditch (Labour marginal number 32) LAB HOLD; Scarborough & Whitby (Labour marginal number 36) CON GAIN; Bristol West (Labour marginal number 38) LIB DEM GAIN; Gloucester (Labour marginal number 40) LAB HOLD
03.30
Score: Labour 288, Liberal Democrat 36, Conservative 93, SNP 3, PC 2
Braintree (Labour marginal number 3, majority 358) CON GAIN; Preseli Pembrokeshire (Labour marginal number 39) CON GAIN
03:45
Ross, Skye & Lochaber (Charles Kennedy) LIB DEM HOLD
04:00
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine LIB DEM HOLD; Banff & Buchan (Alex Salmond) SNP HOLD; Folkestone & Hythe (Michael Howard) CON HOLD; Dorset South (Labour marginal number 2, majority 153) LAB HOLD; Lancaster & Wyre (Labour marginal number 5, majority 481) CON GAIN; Rugby & Kenilworth (Labour marginal number 25, majority 2877) CON GAIN
04.30
LABOUR win 324 seats and a majority.
Score: Labour 329, Liberal Democrat 51, Conservative 158, SNP 6, PC 2
Kettering (Labour marginal number 6, majority 665) CON GAIN; Forest of Dean (Labour marginal number 22, majority 2049) CON GAIN
05.00
Score: Labour 340, Liberal Democrat 53, Conservative 172, SNP 6, PC 2
05.30
Labour majority projected to be 66.
06.00
And now to bed.
12.00
Up again and nothing has changed.
The Labour majority is still thought to be 66.
Score: Labour 353, Liberal Democrat 61, Conservative 196, SNP 6, PC 2
24 seats still to be declared.
13.00
Argyll & Bute LIB DEM HOLD
election.press.net/constituencies_time.html
The full list of 80 Labour marginals is on the BBC website. If Labour lost all of these seats, and gained no others, they would lose their majority in Westminster.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/gainsandlosses_lab.stm
Posted by Simon Holledge at 09:10 PM | TrackBack
The impossible swing?
To illustrate the immensity of the task of challenging Labour under the present system, here are a list of the biggest swings between the Conservatives and Labour since 1945.
1945 12% swing from the national government to Labour
1950 2.9% swing from Labour to the Conservatives
1964 3.1% swing from the Conservatives to Labour
1966 2.8% swing from Labour to the Conservatives
1970 4.9% swing from Labour to the Conservatives
1979 5.3% swing from Labour to the Conservatives
1983 4.1% swing from Labour to the Conservatives
1997 10.2% swing from the Conservatives to Labour
www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/notes/snSG-02608.pdf
Posted by Simon Holledge at 07:40 PM | TrackBack
Political entertainment
Need voting inspiration? I recommend eclectech’s ‘Smirk a little smirk’, and don’t miss the ending!
On the other hand ‘this town ain’t big enough’ is over the top and may induce voting paralysis:
www.spinon.co.uk/content/thistown
On a serious note there is Backing Blair’s ‘Iraq in 30 seconds’:
www.backingblair.co.uk/iraq_war
Posted by Simon Holledge at 06:02 PM | TrackBack
The Skakagrall's simplistic election guide 05
This may be absurdly simplistic, but focusing on the 80 most marginal Labour seats, and making some assumptions, I note:
2% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 10 seats
4.5% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 20 seats
6% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 30 seats
8% anti-Labour swing= Labour lose 40 seats
9% anti-Labour swing= Labour lose 50 seats
10% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 60 seats
11% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 70 seats
12% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 80 seats and their majority in the House of Commons
Posted by Simon Holledge at 03:54 PM | TrackBack
Election day weather
Callander’s Ben Ledi invisible in the rain Photo © SCH
The centre of Scotland is cold and wet this morning. The BBC say the south of England has better weather. We used to think this would be bad for Labour. I don’t know how true it remains today.
Callander’s ‘Polling Place’, cold and rainy but lots of flowers Photo © SCH
Most voters seem to be coming by car to our Primary School, the ‘Polling Place’. There are three sections (with three different numbers) inside, perhaps that is why it is a ‘place’ rather than a ‘station’?
I wasn’t allowed to take photographs inside. I seem to remember seeing pictures of politicians dropping their votes in the ballot boxes, but on second thoughts maybe that is abroad.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 12:22 PM | TrackBack
May 02, 2005
Blair Ditch Project
The Blair Ditch Project has news about the Sedgefield Against War organization and the campaign to ‘Do Labour a favour: vote Blair out’.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 02:26 PM | TrackBack
April 29, 2005
New Vote 2005 Forum
A new Vote 2005 discussion forum has appeared. There is a note explaining:
Unlike some other forums, Vote2005forum.org.uk is NOT sponsered by, nor affiliated to, any political party or such persons associated with political parties. We take a neutral stance and moderate posts fairly and have rules that members abide by.
It resembles closely Vote-2005 UK Election Prediction, a popular phpbb based forum, compromised by a lot of aggressive anonymous posting, which was sponsored by Politicos Bookshop (12 February).
Vote-2005 is currently unobtainable. Attempting to access the site brings up an access forbidden notice (error 403). The site seems to have died on 20 April.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 07:14 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
April 28, 2005
Electoral fraud advice
They Work For You are offering advice about electoral fraud. They write:
“If you’re as worried as we are about electoral fraud, here’s what you can do:
Don’t vote by post. Turn up: it’s worth it.
Ring your council, ask for the Electoral Register Division, and check you’re name is not on the “marked register” - ie, someone has already voted in your name. Find your council’s number here: www.upmystreet.com/lgc_roles
Finally, if you suspect fraud, email electoral.fraud@guardian.co.uk, who are collecting incidents to report on, and contact the police.”
UPDATE 1 May 2005
The Council of Europe may investigate the British postal voting system and the way it could have been abused in this election.
Eric Jurgens, chairman of the Council of Europe’s Council for Democratic Elections is reported as saying: “Some people will think it strange that after focusing on the countries of Eastern Europe we would look at Britain. But if there are problems then they should be examined. Britain is a mature democracy, and so we would not need observers at ballot stations, we would be sending people to examine your rules.”
news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=465932005
Posted by Simon Holledge at 10:58 AM | TrackBack
April 27, 2005
Your MP's Report Card
They Work For You have prepared a short report card on every MP in the last parliament. All you have to do is type in your postcode and you can see the relevant page.
In my case, I learn that during 2001-05 my own ex-MP, Anne McGuire (Stirling Labour), “voted very strongly” for introducing foundation hospitals and student top-up fees, for Labour’s anti-terrorism laws, for the Iraq war and for equal gay rights. She “voted moderately” for introducing ID cards, and “a mixture of for and against” the fox hunting ban.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 11:22 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
April 25, 2005
Spinon satire
The election humour in Spinon just gets better. Originally set up by Rubber Republic it includes the work of DogHorse, Neil Hepburn, Eclectech, and Ben Butterworth.
Our prospects for getting rid of unpopular politicians may not be improving but in the world of satire they have already been annihilated. Hurrah for photoshop and the power of the net!
Posted by Simon Holledge at 11:45 AM | TrackBack
April 24, 2005
Salvaging a bit of optimism
Probably the best thing that can be said for this election is that more and more people are becoming aware of the inadequacy of the British electoral system: they realize that however many of us want to see the back of Tony Blair we are not going to be able to make it happen.
An article on the Electoral Reform Society (ERS) site explains that we could call 425 of the results (outside Northern Ireland) with certainty right now. Another 54 constituencies would require swings of over 7 percent to change hands. Only 2 per cent of electors will have any real influence over what happens.
MakeMyVoteCount.org.uk, which is linked to the ERS, are campaigning for reform and are asking people to sign their petition. The site is endorsed by Charles Kennedy: “Make Votes Count have done a fantastic job … . The last General Election showed clearly why the need for a proportional voting system is as great as ever. Under First-Past-the-Post voter participation is declining, as more and more people are finding that their vote simply does not count… .”
I have mixed feelings about the Joseph Rowntree funded POWER ‘an independent enquiry into Britain’s democracy’, as this frequently seems to fall back on an establishment viewpoint.
On the entry page they say: “We seem to be entering an era of permanent political disaffection and mistrust, where the gap between citizens and political power is getting ever wider. … This growing disconnection between the governors and the governed threatens to undermine the vitality and legitimacy of Britain’s Democracy.”
This rather begs the question of when exactly the system did enjoy vitality and legitimacy.
The POWER blog has some good comments, but the questions can be patronizing “Do young people actually know what the word democracy means?” and the people running the site don’t appear to have the expertise to send proper email notifications etc.
Perhaps I should put forward Holledge’s Law? The more people are involved in publishing a website, and the more they are paid, the more amateurish the website will be.
www.electoral-reform.org.uk/news/05-04-19-seats.htm
www.makemyvotecount.org.uk/home.html
Posted by Simon Holledge at 07:37 PM | TrackBack
April 19, 2005
Backing Blair Video IV
Backing Blair have released their fourth video by Tim Ireland. This is about Iraq: ‘Drawing the line’. It’s dedicated to Peter Hain “who used to care”.
Warning: many of the images are disturbing. (The size is one megabyte.)
www.backingblair.co.uk/the_line/
Posted by Simon Holledge at 11:49 PM | TrackBack
April 18, 2005
I'll be back!
I thought the Backing Blair poster was metaphorical (something to do with Blair?) but I was wrong, Maggie Thatcher was here in person in the Trossachs on Friday 15th, supporting the Save the Scottish Regiments campaign.
If I had my way, she would be in the Hague explaining why she ordered the sinking of the Argentine cruiser General Belgrano, with the loss of 323 lives, on 2 May 1982, when the ship was outside the British-declared exclusion zone.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/ukpolitics/vote2005/scotland/4453591.stm
Posted by Simon Holledge at 10:14 PM | TrackBack
April 16, 2005
'Everyone' election campaign
‘Everyone’, the joint campaign by 25 of Scotland’s environmental bodies for action on climate change, is geared up for the election.
They explain “We need you to press your General Election candidates to commit to delivering year-on-year progress towards a cut of at least 20% in carbon dioxide emissions by 2010, and put us on the path to a 60% cut by 2050.”
They are asking supporters to send a pre-prepared/editable email to local candidates asking for their views on cutting emissions etc. (They have a list of local candidates and you can decide to write to some or all of them.)
www.everyonecan.org/campaigns.html
Everyone is supported by the National Trust for Scotland, RSPB Scotland, Scottish Wildlife Trust, WWF Scotland, Ramblers Association Scotland, John Muir Trust, Woodland Trust Scotland, Friends of the Earth Scotland, Sustrans Scotland, Mountaineering Council of Scotland, Soil Association Scotland, Rural Scotland, Plantlife Scotland, Reforesting Scotland, Cairngorms Campaign, Hebridean Whale and Dolphin Trust, Butterfly Conservation, Marine Conservation Society, Biological Recording in Scotland, North East Mountain Trust, TRANSform Scotland, Scottish Countryside Rangers Association, Scottish Countryside Activities Council, Badenoch and Strathspey Conservation Group, Association of Regional & Island Archaeologists.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 11:26 AM | TrackBack
April 13, 2005
Labour's rotten boroughs
Boris Johnson has an apposite posting on the unfairness of the Westminster electoral system. If all three main parties achieved the same number of votes, Labour would be able to win three times as many seats as the Liberal Democrats, and twice as many as the Tories - not that first-past-the post is a fair system in the beginning.
www.boris-johnson.com/archives/2005/04/britainlikezi.html
Maybe this is a good opportunity to commend Boris-Johnson.com as one of the liveliest, friendliest of the southern blogs. Boris may be a Tory, but many of those who follow his blog and make comments are not, including Tim Ireland who set it up in the first place. Melissa Crawshay-Williams, who looks after the site on a day-to-day basis, encourages broad participation irrespective of party. Good old ‘one nation’ tories of the past would be proud.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 11:40 AM | TrackBack
April 11, 2005
Hit the Road Jack (Straw)
The election is producing a terrific collection of cartoons, posters, animations and satirical songs by online activists and others.
The Rub of ‘Peace not War’ have a great version of ‘Hit the Road Jack’ in support of Craig Murray’s campaign against Jack Straw in Blackburn.
www.craigmurray.co.uk/archives/2005/04/hittheroad_ja.html
Posted by Simon Holledge at 12:47 AM | TrackBack
April 09, 2005
Craig Murray blogging
Craig Murray has started a blog.
Murray is the former British ambassador to Uzbekistan who objected to the use of intelligence derived from torture. He is now standing as an independent anti-war candidate against Jack Straw in Blackburn (see also March 11 and 17 October 2004)
www.craigmurray.co.uk/weblog.html
Posted by Simon Holledge at 12:01 AM | TrackBack
April 08, 2005
Legality of Connery phoning
Further to my earlier postings about political cold calling (March 7), there are doubts about the legality of the SNP using Sir Sean Connery’s taped message for blanket calling.
The Information Commissioner Richard Thomas has apparently warned that each call that resulted in a complaint could result in a GBP 5,000 fine. This implies that the Labour Party, who have already done extensive cold calling, could be in for some very hefty fines.
news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=324&id=372722005
UPDATE 9 April 05
There is a further story in the Scotsman today with Richard Thomas repeating his warning. No doubt the SNP can and should check the Telephone Preference Service (TPS) list, but I wonder what action will be taken against Labour who apparently started cold calling much earlier and without checking the list.
I have been on the TPS list here since February, so it will be interesting if I get any calls: a case of ‘Tony, make my day!’
news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=324&id=374522005
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/ukpolitics/vote2005/scotland/4426815.stm
Posted by Simon Holledge at 02:08 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack
Not Apathetic and keyboard malfunction
mySociety, publishers of WriteToThem.com and DowningStreetSays, have set up a new website for non-voters.
They explain: “NotApathetic was built so that people who are planning not to vote in the UK General Election on May 5th can tell the world why. We won’t try to persuade you that voting is a good or a bad idea - we’re just here to record and share your explanations. Whether ideological, practical or other, any reason will do.”
Contrary to appearances, I have not been suffering from apathy myself the past few days! Instead I have been struggling with two, not one, malfunctioning keyboards! I am hoping things will be back to normal very soon.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 02:08 AM | TrackBack
April 06, 2005
Scotsman on tactical voting
According to Fraser Nelson in the Scotsman, about 10 per cent of the British electorate voted tactically in the past two general elections. Given all the interest now being generated in the subject, I can only assume that even more people are likely to do so this time. Maybe 15 per cent, or 20 per cent?
However, as Nelson points out, many people in Scotland will be unfamiliar with their new constituencies and won’t necessarily know if they are in safe or a marginal seats, so voting behaviour could be erratic.
news.scotsman.com/opinion.cfm?id=361692005
Posted by Simon Holledge at 11:08 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
April 05, 2005
Good timing for Backing Blair
The Backing Blair truck at Westminster.
Congratulations to Backing Blair for getting their first poster truck on the road in London the same day as the prime minister (and target of the campaign) called the election.
The truck, decorated with a Orwell/1984-style Blair ‘No Alternative’ poster, travelled from Buckingham Palace to Waterloo via Greenwich, The Strand, Regent Street, Trafalgar Square, Piccadilly Circus, and Westminster.
www.backingblair.co.uk/weblog.html
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4409935.stm
Posted by Simon Holledge at 01:30 AM | TrackBack
March 30, 2005
Howard's End
It’s a great title for a tactical voting (vote swapping) campaign! This one targets the Tories with the long term (medium term?) aim of eliminating the Conservatives and making the Liberal Democrats into the second party.
Notably targeted are : Michael Howard (Folkestone & Hythe maj: 5,907), Oliver Letwin (Dorset West maj: 1,414), David Davis (Haltemprice and Howden maj: 1,903), Theresa May (Maidenhead maj: 3,284), Caroline Spelman (Meriden maj: 3,784), Tim Collins (Westmorland & Lonsdale maj: 3,147), and David Willetts (Havant maj: 4,207). All except Spelman and Willetts face Liberal Democrat challenges.
However despite the report in the Independent, Howard’s End seems to have no presence on the net, or if they do they are in desperate need of a search engine optimizer! (Thanks to Murky.org for this story).
news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/story.jsp?story=624488
www.murky.org/archives/2005/03/vote_swap.html
UPDATE 31 March 05
Thank to Amy for discovering that the Howard’s End site is in fact called Tactical Voter. Here is the address:
Posted by Simon Holledge at 09:48 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
March 11, 2005
Craig Murray Vs. Jack Straw
Craig Murray, the ex-ambassador to Uzbekistan who objected to using intelligence derived from torture, is standing against the Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, in Blackburn as an independent candidate at the general election (see also 17 October).
I wish him every success! May he run a vigorous campaign and get the voters of Blackburn thinking about the moral issues in foreign policy!
UPDATE 21 March 2005
Craig Murray is writing about his campaign in the Guardian.
www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,3604,1439384,00.html
Posted by Simon Holledge at 10:59 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
March 07, 2005
Tele-campaigning
The Liberal Democrats are supporting a campaign to get Labour and The Conservatives to respect the wishes of those who have registered with the Telephone Preference Service (TPS) to avoid cold calls. As someone who hates being disturbed by the phone, I am registered with TPS and I support the initiative wholeheartedly.
It’s interesting to know that if you are signed up with TPS an unwelcome caller can be fined up to 5,000 pounds.
UPDATE 31 March 05
The Liberal Democrats have now made a complaint to the Information Commissioner about the Labour Party cold calling householders that have registered with the Telephone Preference Service (TPS).
news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/4395195.stm
Posted by Simon Holledge at 03:28 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
February 19, 2005
Strategic Voter
An anti-war tactical voting site called Strategic Voter is giving a new prediction for Stirling;
Labour down from 43 to 38.5 percent
Conservatives up from 23.7 to 25.3 percent
SNP up from 17.1 to 24.2 percent
The ‘principal author’ of the site is Keith Mothersson who lives in Perthshire.
Posted by Simon Holledge at 08:34 PM | TrackBack
February 12, 2005
'Backing Blair'
‘Backing Blair’, an ironic (their adjective is Orwellian) election campaign targeting the prime minister, was launched on 10 February.
They are supporting no less than 45 SNP candidates in the forthcoming election, including all the present SNP incumbents, and SNP principal challengers in Labour seats.
Run by Tim Ireland (the UK internet’s answer to Michael Moore) and friends, this is much more ambitious than the tactical voting plan of the Save our Scottish Regiments (5 February). It covers the whole of Britain. The site has some terrific graphics and a splendid ‘Vote Blair’ Flash Video (see below).
The idea behind Backing Blair is to support the strongest non-Labour candidates in each constituency. This means they are opposing anti-war Labour MPs (like Robin Cook) as well as pro-War ones.
Unfortunately they are now supporting the Tory here in Stirling. I have appealed to the campaign to drop their support for him. Many other would-be campaign supporters are less than delighted at the idea of supporting right-wing, possibly pro-war Conservatives.
www.backingblair.co.uk/vote_blair/index.htm
Posted by Simon Holledge at 03:12 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Vote-2005 forum
There is a new forum site (phpbb based) called Vote-2005 UK Election Prediction which is currently seeing a lot of activity.
(Thanks to Stuart Dickson for recommending this one.)
Posted by Simon Holledge at 12:14 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
February 05, 2005
Goodbye Stirling?
The Save the Scottish Regiments Campaign’s decision to support SNP, Tory and Liberal-Democrat candidates in the coming general election was confusingly reported yesterday with the campaign failing to put a statement on their website.
It is now clear that the campaign will support four SNP candidates in the Western Isles, Dundee East and West, and Ochil and South Perthshire. This is good news. Prospects for the SNP are good in all four seats. To capture them all would be a considerable coup for the party.
Unfortunately the campaign is supporting the Conservative candidate here in Stirling. At the last general election, the SNP came third, but not by a huge margin. The constituency has changed a little with the addition of four wards from the old Ochil constituency. The adjusted ‘notional’ 2001 result by Alba publishing would have given Labour 18,525 votes (43 percent), Conservatives 10,222 (24 percent), SNP 7,352 (17 percent), and Liberal Democrats 4963 (11.5 percent).
Clearly the SNP candidate, Frances McGlinchey, would have an uphill struggle to win this seat, however the Save the Scottish Regiments Campaign campaign is overshadowed here by a much weightier moral issue - the Iraq War. The sitting Labour MP Anne McGuire voted for the war and should be firmly held to account.
www.savethescottishregiments.co.uk/main.htm
Posted by Simon Holledge at 10:27 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
February 04, 2005
Tactical Voting
Stuart Dickson has a fascinating article on ‘Anti-Labour Tactical Voting’ on his Independence blog.
I have been saying that voting patterns in the coming election are going to be more complicated than the pollsters are allowing for, so I was interested to read about the possibility of ‘tactical unwind’. Apparently there may be up to two dozen English Labour seats, now propped up by the tactical votes of anti-Tory Liberal-Democrats, which could unravel if the third party voters decide to switch sides and vote Conservative.
Meanwhile the Save the Scottish Regiments Campaign is encouraging tactical voting by backing particular SNP, Tory and Liberal-Democrat candidates. This includes the SNP’s Angus MacNeil in the Western Isles. Maybe a good target?
Stuart declares that he would never vote tactically, but isn’t that what MPs and MSPs do every week of their parliamentary careers? Why should voters be different? After all we live in an imperfect democracy, and many important issues are not party-based.
scottish-independence.blogspot.com/2005/02/anti-labour-tactical-voting.html
Posted by Simon Holledge at 02:56 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack